Why Jannik Sinner Can’t Stop Alcaraz From Finishing 2025 In Tennis No. 1 Spot

Carlos Alcaraz is on track to finish 2025 as the world’s No. 1 men’s tennis player — and there’s very little Jannik Sinner can do to stop him.

Although Sinner has held the top ranking for over a year, his recent losses to Alcaraz — including the US Open final — have made a big difference in the points race. Alcaraz’s win in New York gave him not only a sixth Grand Slam title but also a 760-point lead in the ATP rankings.

Sinner’s problem now is that he has too many points to defend in the coming weeks, while Alcaraz has far fewer.

Last year, Sinner won big titles in Shanghai and at the ATP Finals in Turin, meaning he must defend 2,830 points between now and the end of the season. Alcaraz, on the other hand, only has 1,000 points dropping from his record over that same period.

This means that even if Sinner plays well, he may just be keeping the points he already has — not gaining enough to catch up with Alcaraz.

Alcaraz can also add more points by doing well in the Beijing Open and the Shanghai Masters. If he performs strongly in those events, he could make it almost impossible for Sinner to regain the top spot.

Sinner might still have a small chance at the Paris Masters, where he didn’t play last year and could gain up to 1,000 points. But the ATP Finals in Turin will be the most important event. Sinner won that tournament last year, so he must defend 1,500 points, while Alcaraz only has 200 points to defend there.

Even if the rankings race goes all the way to Turin, Alcaraz could finish the job just by winning a few group-stage matches — possibly even before facing Sinner in a final.

There are also smaller indoor events in Vienna and Basel where both players could try to pick up extra points, but the reality is simple: Alcaraz controls his own destiny.

Unless something unexpected happens, Jannik Sinner’s chances of ending the year as world No. 1 are quickly slipping away.