NBA finals judgement day: what to expect as the pacers face elimination

As Game 6 of the 2025 NBA Finals approaches, it’s do or die for the Indiana Pacers. They trail the Oklahoma City Thunder 3-2 in the series and return to Gainbridge Fieldhouse for what will be their final home game of the season no matter the result. The big question hangs over the night? Will star point guard Tyrese Haliburton play?

Here’s what to expect on this high-stakes Judgement Day in Indianapolis.

1. Will Haliburton Play?

The biggest storyline ahead of tip-off is the health of Tyrese Haliburton. The 25-year-old guard is dealing with a right calf strain, an injury he picked up early in Game 5. Although he returned to play 34 minutes that night, his impact was minimal: 4 points (all from free throws), 7 rebounds, 6 assists, 3 turnovers, and 0-for-6 from the field.

On Wednesday, Haliburton was seen at practice but didn’t appear to be moving much. Head coach Rick Carlisle said he took part in walk-through drills but no full-speed activity. Haliburton himself said, “I’m a competitor; I want to play.”

There are three possible outcomes:

• Haliburton recovers enough to play regular minutes.
• He plays limited minutes, hoping to inspire, even if at less than full strength.
• He’s ruled out before tip-off, and Indiana must try to stay alive without him.

Given Indiana’s record with Haliburton this season (60-34) compared to without him (4-5), his status could decide the series.

2. T.J. McConnell to the Rescue?

If Haliburton can’t go or struggles again we expect veteran backup T.J. McConnell to take on a bigger role. The energetic 33-year-old has been a spark for the Pacers throughout the Finals, 18 points on 8-of-14 shooting in Game 5.

McConnell has shown he can boost the offence and bring defensive pressure. Carlisle limited his minutes in the last game, saying McConnell looked tired. The player agreed, but said he fully trusts his coach’s decisions.

3. Turnovers and Rebounds: The Deciding Stats

Game 5 was decided on the margins and that’s been a trend in this series. The Thunder forced 23 turnovers, turning them into 32 points. They also won the rebound battle and controlled the pace.

In OKC’s three wins, they have a 131-118 edge in rebounds and a 71-49 advantage in points off turnovers. The Pacers have struggled when forced into a half-court offence, especially without Haliburton driving the pace.

Expect Indiana to try pushing the tempo more at home, but they’ll need to protect the ball and battle harder on the glass to have a chance.

4. Will the Thunder’s Offence Travel?

Oklahoma City has not moved the ball as well in Indianapolis as they have at home. They’re averaging fewer passes and assists on the road during the Finals. Coach Mark Daigneault acknowledged they’ll need to be better offensively in Game 6, knowing the Pacers play with more energy in front of their fans.

“They pressure more. They’re more aggressive. We expect that again,” he said.

Final Thoughts: Do or Die in Indy

The Thunder are one win away from their first NBA championship since moving to Oklahoma City. The Pacers, on the other hand, must win to force a decisive Game 7.

It all hinges on Haliburton’s calf, the Pacers’ ball control, and whether McConnell can continue to energise his team. It’s Judgement Day in the NBA Finals  and we’re about to see who survives.